'Not a proxy war': Sudan civil war 'would not go on like this' without role of international players
Gavin Lee is pleased to welcome Jan Pospisil, Sudan Affairs Analyst at the Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform. He says the siege has been going on for almost a year, and the RSF seems com
Gavin Lee is pleased to welcome Jan Pospisil, Sudan Affairs Analyst at the Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform. He says the siege has been
Read Full Story at France 24 →Why This Matters
The escalation in Sudan’s civil war—now in its twelfth month—reveals a critical inflection point where regional and global powers are not merely observers but architects of the conflict’s endurance. The involvement of international actors, whether through arms flows, diplomatic maneuvers, or economic support, has transformed what could have been a localized power struggle into a self-sustaining humanitarian catastrophe, reshaping the balance of power in the Horn of Africa.
Background Context
Sudan’s civil war is rooted in decades of simmering tensions between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), but its current intensity was ignited by the 2019 ouster of Omar al-Bashir and the fragile power-sharing agreement that followed. The RSF, a paramilitary group with origins in the Janjaweed militias, has grown into a formidable force backed by regional patrons, while the SAF retains ties to traditional military hierarchies and international military establishments.
What Happens Next
With no ceasefire in sight and both sides increasingly reliant on foreign backing, the conflict risks becoming a frozen stalemate, where humanitarian access remains restricted and civilian casualties mount. Diplomatic efforts, including African Union-mediated talks, face diminishing credibility unless external sponsors curb their involvement, suggesting that the war’s trajectory will be dictated as much by geopolitical calculations as by battlefield realities.
Bigger Picture
Sudan’s war exemplifies a disturbing trend in modern conflicts, where state collapse and non-state armed groups exploit international rivalries to prolong hostilities. As global powers pivot between proxy engagements and strategic alliances, the Sudanese crisis underscores how localized disputes can metastasize into regional destabilization, particularly in areas where governance vacuums and resource competition intersect.
