The looming Super El Nino
A powerful El Nino is expected to peak in November that could threaten food supply and increase extreme weather events. Al Jazeera’s Marthe van der Wolf explains why people need to expect the worst.
A powerful El Nino is expected to peak in November that could threaten food supply and increase extreme weather events. This report comes from Al Jaz
Read Full Story at Al Jazeera →Why This Matters
The return of a powerful El Niño could reshape global weather systems in ways that ripple across economies, food security, and humanitarian crises. Unlike routine climatic shifts, a "Super El Niño" amplifies risks of droughts in agricultural powerhouses like Australia and South Africa while intensifying flooding in vulnerable regions, potentially disrupting supply chains that millions depend on.
Background Context
El Niño events have historically followed irregular cycles, but climate change may be altering their frequency and intensity. The last "Super El Niño" in 2015-2016 triggered record-breaking temperatures and reshaped monsoon patterns, leaving scars on fisheries and crop yields that lingered for years. Governments now face a stark choice: prepare for cascading disruptions or risk compounding crises in already strained systems.
What Happens Next
As November approaches, policymakers will scramble to pre-position aid and adjust commodity forecasts, but the window for mitigation is narrowing. The real test will come in early 2024, when delayed monsoons and failed harvests could expose gaps in global food reserves. Meanwhile, insurance markets may reprice climate risks, pricing out smaller farmers just as losses mount.
Bigger Picture
This event underscores how interconnected climate risks have become—where a Pacific Ocean anomaly can dictate wheat prices in Chicago or rice shortages in Jakarta. It also highlights the paradox of progress: even as climate science improves, the same shifts that enable longer growing seasons in some regions also heighten volatility in others, demanding a rethink of how societies hedge against systemic shocks.
